Energy experts from around the world have gathered in Houston for a three-day conference on the issue of peak oil, which involves predictions that world oil production will soon reach its peak and then go into decline. This could cause a global economic crisis since demand for energy is not expected to slow, but, in fact, is expanding rapidly. Greg Flakus has more from Houston.
The proponents of the peak oil theory rely on data from existing oil fields around the world that show weakening production in many of the richest fields and increasing difficulty in extracting oil from newer fields. Oil companies, both national and private, tend to dismiss such concerns by citing the size of their reserves and the new technology that allows them to produce oil from areas that would have been bypassed a few decades ago.
But the peak oil theory believers include some of the world's most respected engineers and economists, many of whom have years of experience working in the oil and gas industry. Some of them go so far as to say the world may have already peaked in its oil production and that production will soon go into a steep decline.
What makes this especially worrisome is that demand is going in the other direction. Matt Simmons, an oil industry analyst based here in Houston, is one of the best known advocates of the peak oil idea. He notes that demand for oil on a worldwide basis has grown from ten million barrels a day in 1950 to an estimated 88 million barrels a day projected for next year. He says demand will grow even more in the decades ahead.
"Almost all the long-term forecasts look out to 2020 and then 2030 and see a world that is going to need 115 to 120 million barrels a day of oil by 2020 and 120 to 130 by 2030," said Matt Simmons.
But Simmons says even those predictions may not fully capture the danger ahead. He notes that the fast-growing economies of India and China have reached only one third of Mexico's per-capita consumption of oil. If they were to reach Mexico's level of use, the world would require an additional 45 million barrels a day in output.
"I happen to think that this issue will soon overwhelm global warming as the single biggest threat to sustaining the 21st century," he said. "But I am amazed that it still lurks in the shadows and amazed at the debate as to whether it is even a real issue."
Simmons says steps should be taken now to reduce demand and to develop alternative fuels.
Among other participants in this week's conference here in Houston are famed Texas oil man T. Boone Pickens, Chris Skrebowski of the Energy Institute in London, David Hughes of the Geological Survey of Canada and a number of academics and independent energy analysts. The conference will conclude with panel discussions on Saturday.
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世界石油大会10月17日到20日在美国德克萨斯州的休斯顿市举行。来自世界各地的能源专家在会上讨论了全球石油供求问题。与会人士认为，世界石油生产将很快达到顶峰，接下来将逐步下降。这种情况可能引起一场全球性的经济危机，因为世界能源需求不但不会减少，反而在急剧增加。
支持石油产量顶峰理论的人士的主要依据是，来自世界各地现有油田的数据显示，很多蕴藏丰富的油田产量都在下降，而新油田的开采却变得越来越困难。可是石油公司，不论是国营的还是私营的，都对这种理论不以为然，他们声称拥有丰富的石油储备，而且新科技将使他们能够在那些几十年前难以涉足的地区开采石油。
不过，相信石油产量顶峰理论的人士包括世界上一些最受尊重的工程师和经济学家，其中很多人多年来一直在石油和天然气领域工作，积累了丰富的经验。有的专家甚至说，世界石油产量其实已经达到了顶峰，而且很快就会开始急剧减少。
全球能源需求仍在激增
这种情况之所以特别令人不安，是因为世界能源需求正在朝相反的方向发展。马特.西蒙斯是休斯顿的一位石油工业专家，也是最著名的鼓吹石油产量顶峰理论的分析师。他指出，整个世界的石油需求在上个世纪50年代是每天1000万桶，然而预计在明年，世界石油需求将增加到8800万桶。西蒙斯认为，在今后的10年中，石油需求将以更大的幅度增长。
他说：“几乎所有关于2020年和2030年的长期预测都显示，世界石油需求将在2020年达到1亿1千5百万到1亿2千万桶，在2030年达到1亿2千万到1亿3千万桶。”
西蒙斯表示，这些预测虽然已经够惊人的了，可是都没有完全击中要害。他指出，印度和中国这两个高速发展的经济体的人均石油消耗量，迄今为止只相当于墨西哥人均石油消耗量的三分之一。如果中印两国的人均消耗量达到墨西哥的水平，那么世界石油产量就必须每天再增加4500万桶才能满足需求。
西蒙斯说：“因此我认为，这个问题将很快超过全球气温变暖，成为整个世界所面临的最大的问题，直接威胁到21世纪全球经济的持续增长。然而令我感到吃惊的是，这个问题仍然被埋藏在阴影里，而且最令我吃惊的是，人们仍然在辩论这到底是不是一个真正的问题。”
西蒙斯表示，世界各国现在必须采取步骤减少石油需求，开发替代燃料。
出席休斯顿世界石油大会的其他人士还包括著名的德克萨斯石油大亨布恩.皮肯斯(T. Boone Pickens)、伦敦能源研究所的克里斯.斯克雷博斯基，加拿大地质调查局的大卫.休斯和其他学术界人士和独立的能源专家。 |
