Bankers and analysts who met in San Francisco recently (September 6 and 7) say that 10 years after the Asian financial crisis, a resurgent Asia has reemerged as an economic power. They say the key to stable growth in Asia's emerging markets is a resilient financial system. Mike O'Sullivan has this report on the conclusions reached at the San Francisco meeting - sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, a branch of the U.S. Central Bank.
Regulators, economists and bankers shared lessons from the past and cautions for the future as they looked back on the Asian crisis.
The problems started when the Thai currency collapsed in July, 1997. Panicked investors withdrew their funds and the rapid outflow sent tremors throughout Asia.
For all but astute investors, the frightening chain of events was unexpected. Tarisa Watanagase, governor of the Bank of Thailand, says her country was moving ahead in early 1997 as one of the so-called Asian Tigers. "I think we were in a state of euphoria. Everything was rosy. Money was easy to get, both from the domestic lenders and the foreign ones."
Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea were most affected by the crisis. The International Monetary Fund imposed sweeping requirements for financial reform in exchange for help. The measures included closing troubled banks, abandoning fixed exchange rates and restructuring corporations.
Linda Yang was U.S. ambassador to the Asian Development Bank, which along with the IMF, tried to restore liquidity and confidence in Asia. She says the reforms were difficult, and the poor bore much of the burden.
"In those countries where there was hardly any social safety net, when you impose very strict fiscal discipline, what are the people who are going to be hurt first? Those people who did not have much of a voice - the poor children who depend on a school lunch or the local community clinic," she said.
She says international officials could have tailored their responses more effectively and humanely, but serious reform was needed.
Yang says Thailand and South Korea had lost billions of dollars in foreign exchange reserves through bad investments and poor accounting practices. Auditors discovered the losses.
Dominic Barton, chairman of the consulting firm McKinsey & Co. Asia, says the financial system in Thailand and some other parts of Asia was inefficient. "The banking system was basically very weak and broken. The corporate sector was unprofitable. So this was a crisis waiting to happen," he said.
Jong Nam Oh was an advisor to South Korean President Kim Dae-jung, who took office in late 1997. Oh oversaw South Korea's corporate restructuring, and says the new administration took tough measures.
He notes that four of the country's five big industrial conglomerates, known in Korean as chaebol, would emerge as stronger global corporations: Samsung, Hyundai, LG and SK. A fifth chaebol, Daewoo, collapsed in bankruptcy.
Larry Greenwood, a vice president at the Asian Development Bank, says that before the crisis, there was an over-reliance on banks to finance businesses, but today he sees a more open financial system, with growing stock and bond markets.
There are still strains and risks in the Asian economies, says McKinsey & Company's Dominic Barton. He says that coming years will see 800 million new middle-class consumers in India and China, and that borrowers and lenders will need financial education to cope with the surge in spending and lending. "Because when it happened in Korea and Hong Kong and Taiwan, we had blow-outs, bankruptcies," he said.
Economic success, says Korean advisor Jong Nam Oh, still breeds complacency. "If we celebrate too much, and if we become complacent, then this kind of crisis can always come again," he said.
Indonesia, in particular, lags behind its neighbors as it struggles to implement reforms. The nation is also coping with the aftermath of the devastating 2004 tsunami. But these analysts paint a much brighter picture for much of Asia.
They caution that economic disruptions, caused by Avian flu, political upheavals or a surge in oil prices, could cause another Asian downturn. So could problems in the U.S. economy, whose consumers fuel much of Asia's expansion.
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最近在旧金山出席会议的银行业界人士和分析人士说，亚洲爆发金融危机的10年之后，复兴的亚洲再次成为一股强大的经济力量。他们认为，亚洲的新兴市场得以稳定发展的关键在于富有弹性的金融体制。这次旧金山会议是隶属美国中央银行的旧金山联邦储备银行召集的，与会者得出了上述结论。
经管人员、经济学者和银行家对亚洲金融危机进行回顾，并就以往的教训和对未来的警惕进行了交流。1997年7月，泰国货币崩盘，触发了一系列问题。恐慌的投资者纷纷撤出资金，而资金的迅速外流很快对其他亚洲国家造成影响。对精明的投资者来说，这一连串令人恐怖的事件出乎意料。
泰国银行总裁塔里萨.瓦塔纳加瑟说，泰国在1997年初期发展迅速，是当时的“亚洲小虎”之一。她说：“我认为，我们当时是沉浸在幸福之中。一切都那么美好。无论是从国内借贷，还是从国外借贷，钱来得都非常容易。”
金融危机打击
在那场金融危机中，泰国、印度尼西亚和韩国受到的打击最沉重。国际货币基金组织答应提供帮助，但交换条件是这些国家必须实行彻底的金融体制改革，包括关闭陷于困境的银行、放弃固定汇率以及进行公司重组。
当时的美国驻亚洲开发银行代表杨曹文梅与国际货币基金组织一道，试图恢复亚洲的资金正常运转和信心。她说，改革的难度很大，而且穷人要承受最大的压力。她说：“在那些几乎没有任何社会安全保障的国家，一旦实行非常严厉的财政政策，首先受到打击的是谁呢？是那些没有多少发言权的人，是那些依靠学校午餐和本地社区诊所过活的贫穷儿童。”
杨曹文梅表示，国际组织的官员应当可以做得更有效、更人道，但必须认真地实行改革。她说，泰国和韩国由于投资不善和糟糕的账目核算而损失的外汇储备多达数十亿美元。审计员发现了这些亏损。
多米尼克.巴顿是国际咨询公司麦肯锡亚洲部的负责人。他说，当时泰国和亚洲其他一些地方的金融体制缺乏效率。他说：“银行系统基本上是非常弱的，而且也不健全。公司也不盈利。所以自然就会发生危机。”
仍存在不少风险
巴顿认为，亚洲经济体系当中目前还存在着不少的风险。他说，在今后这些年里，印度和中国两地加起来，将会产生8亿中产阶级消费者，那些需要贷款的人还有提供借贷的人都需要有良好的金融方面的教育，才能够应对消费和借贷方面大幅度上涨的需求。他说：“根据韩国、香港和台湾的经历来看，弄不好会出现一团糟和很多破产的情形。”
不过，曾经给韩国前总统金大中做顾问的吴正南认为，经济上的成就容易让人产生自满的情绪。他说：“假如我们过份沾沾自喜，假如我们产生自满情绪的，就很容易导致上面所说的那种危机。”
专家提醒人们注意，禽流感、政治上的变革或者是石油价格大涨，都有可能让亚洲经济再度走入低谷。另一方面，假如美国国内经济出现问题，也会让亚洲各国的经济一蹶不振，因为很大程度上讲，正是美国的那些消费者，让亚洲很多国家的经济得以增长。
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