Heavy rains have triggered massive floods in the upper Midwest, causing widespread damage in cities and towns in Iowa, Illinois and Missouri. But the biggest impact of the flooding may be on world food prices since the area struck produces most of the country's corn and soybeans. Greg Flakus has more from Houston.
The flooding along the Mississippi river and many of its tributaries is only the latest manifestation of a problem vexing farmers in the region. The heavy rains that produced the flooding began around a month ago, right at the time when most farmers were planting. While rain is necessary for crops to grow, too much rain can destroy crops. Both corn and soybean plants die if left in water for two days.
Roger Elmore, an agronomist at Iowa State University, speaking by telephone, says there will be a profound impact on this year's crops.
"Yields on both crops will be reduced significantly," he said. "Corn, I am thinking, will have at least a 50 percent reduction in yield."
He says many farmers will have the option of replanting if the flood waters recede and are not replenished by more heavy rain. The high prices will provide farmers with an incentive to plant rather than take payments from crop failure insurance policies.
Elmore says corn prices were already higher than normal before the floods, partly because of demand for the grain by plants that use it to produce ethanol, an alcohol that is used as a fuel additive in gasoline.
"Over half of the corn normally goes into livestock feed; ethanol consumes about 30 percent of the grain, the corn grain, and they are going to be fighting for it because they have these huge facilities, and then the food uses, about eight to 10 percent of the corn grain goes into food [products]. All of those forces are going to be competing to buy corn," he said.
Roger Elmore says market speculators are driving up prices based on the devastation they see in the Midwest fields. He says corn, which went for around four dollars a bushel just a few years ago has nearly doubled in price.
"Futures yesterday, I think, went up to $7 [a bushel] for July futures on corn," said Elmore. "Projections done by one of our economists here indicate it will be up to $11 before this is all said and done."
Elmore says the floods and the use of corn to produce ethanol are only two of the factors driving up corn prices. He says the weakness of the dollar, high prices for fertilizer and, above all, higher energy prices also play a big role. With oil selling for around $140 a barrel, he says, farmers who depend on diesel fuel to run their tractors and other machinery need to get a higher price for what they produce.
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暴雨在美国中西部的北部地区引发洪水，在爱奥华州、伊利诺伊州和密苏里州的许多城镇造成损失。但是这次洪灾带来的最大影响可能还是全球食品价格上涨，因为这一地区是美国主要的玉米和大豆产地。
这次在密西西比河及其许多支流沿岸发生的洪灾只是困扰该地区农民的一个问题的最新表现。造成洪灾的暴雨大约在一个月前开始，发生在大多数农民播种的季节。虽然庄稼生长需要雨水，但是雨量过多也会毁掉庄稼。玉米和大豆如果连续两天遭水淹就会死亡。
埃尔莫尔是爱奥华州立大学的农学家。他在电话上对记者说，今年的庄稼将大受影响。
他说：“这两种庄稼的收成将大量减少。我想玉米至少会减产50%。”
他说，许多农民可以在水退去后再补种庄稼，要是不再下大雨的话。这样，他们可以不领取作物歉收的保险赔偿金。
埃尔莫尔说，玉米价格在洪灾前已经高于通常的价格，部分原因是用谷物来生产乙醇的工厂的需求量增加，乙醇被用作汽油燃料添加剂。
埃尔莫尔说：“一半以上的玉米通常是用作家畜饲料，而大约有30%的玉米用来生产乙醇，他们将争相购买玉米 ，因为他们拥有这些巨大的设施，然后是约8%到10%的玉米用于食品。所有那些生产部门都会争相购买玉米。”
埃尔莫尔说，市场投机商鉴于中西部农田的损失惨重而在抬高价格。他说，仅在几年前玉米价格还只有每蒲式耳4美元，如今却几乎上涨了一倍。
埃尔莫尔说：“昨天7月交货的玉米期货价格上涨到每蒲式耳7美元。我们这里的一位经济学家所作的预测是玉米期货价格涨到每蒲式耳11美元都很有可能。”
埃尔莫尔说，洪灾和用玉米生产乙醇只是抬高玉米价格的两个因素。他说，美元疲软、肥料价格上升，尤其是燃料价格飞涨，都在其中起了相当大的作用。他说，在油价涨到每桶140美元的情况下，依靠柴油发动拖拉机等机械设备的农民所生产的作物价格也不得不提高。
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