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英文财经 |
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The Top Five Global Investment Megatrends of 2008 Will Make You A Fortune |
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星期四, 八月 14, 2008 09:33:28 |
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by
Nicholas A.Vardy |
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Global megatrends are fundamental, secular shifts in the investment landscape that endure for years. Megatrend investing ignores the day-to-day noise of the market in favor of a handful of measured but major decisions based on the global investment big picture. Here are my current, Top Five Global Investment Megatrends -- as I presented them to my audiences at The Money Show in San Francisco last week.
1. The Appreciation of the Chinese Yuan
The Wall Street Journal recently called the Chinese currency, the yuan, "one of the few sure bets in global financial markets," thanks to China's well-telegraphed, gradual appreciation of the yuan against the dollar.
Based on the Economist magazine's recently published annual "Big Mac Index" -- a tongue in cheek measure of "purchasing power parity" (PPP), the yuan is the most undervalued currency on the planet. Thousands of Hong Kong residents are converting their U.S. dollar-pegged Hong Kong dollars into the Chinese currency and brought between $50 billion and $200 billion into China in just the first six months of 2008. That helped swell China's foreign currency reserves to $1.8 trillion at the end of June.
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The result? The yuan has risen 7.1% against the dollar just this year -- and a total of 20% since China abandoned its dollar peg in 2006. No wonder investment guru Jim Rogers has announced that he is using any rally in the dollar to sell his remaining U.S. dollar holdings in favor of the Swiss franc, the yen and the yuan.
2. The Collapse of the Euro
With the weak dollar dominating headlines for so long, it is hard to recall a time when the greenback wasn't the world's most hated currency. Foreign commentators and market Cassandras have long predicted that the U.S. dollar is on the verge of losing its status as the world's reserve currency. Meanwhile, the euro, hardly a decade old, has been positioning itself as a natural successor to the embattled greenback.
But these headlines are overblown. Based on the Economist magazine's "Big Mac Index," the euro is among the most overvalued currencies in the world. Today, a Big Mac costs 50% more in euros than it does in U.S. dollars. It never has been more overvalued in its short history. The market is catching on. The euro recently fell through a long-standing trading range to the downside. The U.S. dollar also tends to move in six- to seven-year cycles, shifting between periods of extreme undervaluation to overvaluation against foreign currencies. So after six years of relentless decline, the dollar's fortunes are finally shifting -- and it's the euro that is set for a mighty tumble.
3. Profiting from Global Agflation
The economic boom in Asia and Latin America is putting money in the pockets of the emerging middle class. As a result, the Asian and Latin American middle classes are rapidly adopting the eating habits of Americans and Europeans. With a combined population approaching 2.5 billion, it's no surprise that the shifting preferences of China and India have caused prices of grains and meats around the world to hit record highs. Average calorie consumption is expected to increase by 50% in China during the next decade.
As a report from Bedlam Asset Management puts it, "From 1,200 calories a day 20 years ago, three-quarters of the world's population now has enough money to eat just like us." Thanks to population growth alone, each year there are around 80 million extra mouths to feed on Planet Earth. That's the equivalent of a new Germany each year. Government subsidies promoting the use of ethanol have also introduced huge distortions in the global marketplace, and resulted in higher prices.
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4. The Commodities "Super Cycle" Lives
The recent collapse of major commodity indices notwithstanding, virtually every commodity from oil and natural gas to gold and zinc has hit record highs in the past year. According to Jim Rogers, the 20th century has seen three secular bull markets in commodities (1906-1923, 1933-1955, 1968-1982), each lasting a little more than 17 years. Rogers believes that we currently are smack dab in the middle of yet another secular bull market in commodities that began in 1999.
The reasons are clear. Demand is accelerating for commodities across the globe. During the past decade, China had become the #1 consumer of copper, steel and iron ore in the world -- consuming more of both than the United States and Japan combined. On the supply side, no major oil field has been discovered in the world for the last 35 years. Virtually no new mine shafts have been opened in the last 20 years. As a result, long-neglected commodities giants have morphed into some of the most valuable companies in the world virtually overnight.
5. The Global Explosion in Local Financial Services
Hundreds of millions of citizens of developing countries aspire to the lifestyles and consumption habits of Americans and Western Europeans. These new lifestyles need new types of financing. Fifteen years ago, banks in developing countries offered little more than savings accounts. Today, they have transformed into modern financial institutions that offer mortgages, automobile and personal loans, as well as asset management and other high-end, value-added services.
Financial institutions across the rapidly growing countries in Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe are growing 30% a year as far as the eye can see. The share prices of the banks can appreciate five- or ten-fold during the course of a decade. Another bonus? By sticking to the basics, these banks never played the mortgage-backed security game their more sophisticated American and European counterparts are now suffering from.
Investing in Megatrends: Change is the Only Constant
Megatrends keep going until -- well, until they stop. Last year, it was the Chinese stock market that seemed invincible. Yet since it peaked in October, the domestic Chinese stock market has plummeted a breathtaking 59.67% from its peak, including a drop of 8% on 8/8/08 -- the opening day of the Beijing Olympics. And therein lies the art of megatrend investing. You've not only got to recognize the megatrends, but also recognize when they are running out of steam.
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文章来源：MoneyShowAsia |
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