布林格论资本增长

英文财经
布林格论资本增长
星期四, 七月 03, 2008 09:31:56

by *John Bollinger’s Capital Growth Letter*

约翰·布林格是金融交易市场广为使用的布林线创始人，也是布林线资产管理公司总裁。他每周都根据各种指标以及自己发明的投资工具和分析技术，为美国和世界的成熟投资者提供数份研究报告。此处，我们从其授权发布的《资本增长通讯》中摘选部分内容供读者学习、研究。 Stocks Our outlook for stocks remains positive through the elections. Granted I did not think that a retest of the March lows was needed, but our strategic plan remains unchanged; we do plan to lighten up on equity exposure later in the year, hopefully into market strength. All of that is of course subject to developments, but the course seems clear for now. No major changes to the portfolios at this time, just a bit of fine tuning. We are letting go of our position in large cap value, IWD and switching into Mid-cap growth, IJK, which is where the action is developing. Of particular note in this regard has been the trend of the small and mid-cap indices to trade up on down days for "the market". We have written about emerging inflation for so long, that it seems anti-climactic now that it is becoming topic one. However, don't be fooled, inflation will remain topic one for a long time and will prove to be a major issue for the markets. You read about it here first and you'll read about here again. This is a story that won't quit easily... More below. There were three changes to the ETF portfolios between issues via the Hotline: Sell IVW and buy IJJ, a move to mid-cap value from large-cap growth. Sell EWP and buy EWC, a move from Spain to Canada. Sell XLP and buy IYT, a move from Consumer Staples to Transportation. GroupPower continues to paint a disconcerting picture with the Energy and Basic Materials sectors in the lead chased immediately by Technology and Telecomm. We see this as economic strength with a strong message that group and sector rotation is at least as important as market timing in the current environment.

International In our eyes the DAX, German stocks, remains the leading international market index. However, with the dollar in a consolidation and the odds of dollar strength increasing, our focus is more properly devoted to the US markets and the opportunities they offer. We'll maintain our international commitment for now, but if the dollar does get going, we'll be cutting it further. On the international front we see that the European Central Bank is out in front on the inflation fight. This ought to prove interesting and uncomfortable for our Fed. Frankly, we wish the Fed would essentially shut down operations and manage money supply and interest rates according to a systematic plan that everyone knows and understands. We like some of Milton Friedman's ideas in this regard... The idea that the business cycles and credit cycles that lie at the heart of capitalism ought to be fought and tamed seems absurd to us. Bonds It is now clear to most everyone that interest rates are rising and I suspect they have a long way to go. The lows were put in the week of March 17th and ranged from 0.2% for 90-day Treasury bills to 4.16% for a 30-year Treasury bond. Today the range is 1.95% for bills and 4.79% for the bond. From a technical perspective interest rates of all maturities are now in well-defined uptrends and we expect them to remain in this state for the foreseeable future. Given the high levels of inflation currently embedded in the system, a long bear market for bonds would seem to be in the cards. The real problem is the under-reporting of inflation, which is the sort of thing that causes everyone to distrust the reported numbers and creates an environment rife with problems that are very hard to mitigate. The Fed spent a couple of decades building up credibility in its battle against inflation, all of which will be eroded in a year if they don't watch out. Indeed, much of their credibility may already have been eroded, which suggests a bleak future. In our view, the broad stock market topped out in the summer of 1998 and we are completing the 11th year of a sideways/consolidation market. Although there is very little data, it seems that the expansion/consolidation cycle is very roughly sixteen years a leg. Ten years in it looked like the cycle was ending. Everything seemed set up perfectly and it was hard to imagine what would occur to prolong the cycle for another six years. Then the mortgage crisis bloomed, spread into a systemic problem and set the stage perfectly for an extension of the cycle. The summer of 2013 will mark the 16th anniversary of the consolidation and it is now easily possible to imagine this consolidation running for at least several more years. Battling inflation with higher interest rates and tighter money supply, never a happy circumstance for stocks, is almost certainly the agenda for the foreseeable economic future. Already we see the signs of a slowing money supply, see the chart top of page 5 and rising interest rates, chart at the bottom of page 5. These cannot be good signs for the long haul, but paradoxically they may indeed be good signs in the short haul. In the past stocks have liked the initial phases of interest rate increases and inflation has also been benign as long as it wasn't seen as being out of control. Interestingly enough this fits pretty well with our view of a stronger, but highly volatile stock market into the election and then a transition to a more challenging environment for stocks. Sometimes if you are simply patient, questions answer themselves. Gold Gold stocks got back to support before firming up and turning higher. At this stage they are basically in sync with bullion, which is trading just above support in the 850 to 875 area. Interestingly both platinum and palladium are stronger than gold, which is lending a firm tone to the entire precious metals sector and stocks. Given our inflationary outlook, we find this sector attractive and would be willing to add to positions when opportunity presents itself. My old assistant, Frank Barbera, from the Financial News Network days is hyper-knowledgeable about gold stocks. Frank is very good at locating smaller precious metals companies that have interesting potential. I'll check in with him to see if I can't add a couple of his picks to the next letter for your examination.

Energy Looking over the energy complex considering price levels, alternatives such as coal, reduced consumption, reduced driving in the US, oil sands, improved extraction technologies, modern exploration techniques and so on, we simply can't see why prices should be sustained at current levels. In fact, though the long-term outlook for energy is quite bullish, I think that the current price levels are most likely unsustainable and that a substantial correction may be in the offing. An important part of this thinking is our belief that speculators--especially hedge funds, not actual demand, account for the greatest part of the most recent advance. When these speculators get burned, as they invariably do, we'll see a return to more sustainable price levels and the stage will be set for a nice reentry into the market place. Don't want to incur the taxes involved in the sales? There are lots of hedging possibilities including the short sale of ETFs, energy futures, many defensive option strategies including simply buying puts and others. I really think it is time to get defensive on energy Commodities For a while I really thought that commodities had had it. A big peak in March followed by a sharp pullback and a three-month consolidation; just the type of pattern that one should worry about. But before support ever came under fire prices turned up again, proving the strength of this sector. Just as I am worried about energy prices being unsustainable, I am starting to worry about commodity prices as well. Speculators are also very active in this sector and a substantial disruption is a distinct possibility. However, in this sector the stocks are leading and there is no sign of technical deterioration yet, so it looks to be earlier in the process than energy, where the stocks are not leading. Basic materials stocks are still attractive. The Dollar The dollar is flat against the euro since mid-March and sitting in the lower portion of its recent trading range. During this same period the dollar has strengthened considerably against the yen, rallying from 96 to 108 and breaking out of a declining channel in doing so. Against the pound the dollar is flat since last November and we have seen substantial price improvement against the Canadian dollar since the panic lows when a US dollar fetched but 90.5 Canadian cents. On the other side of the coin, we have seen little improvement against the Swiss franc. All told, we see this as a market in transition. From a psychological perspective virtually everyone believes that the dollar is still falling, so perhaps the stage is set for a real reversal. We believe that the Fed will have to follow the ECB and start raising rates, which might be the excuse to generate some strength. 有关作者：John Bollinger is the president and founder of Bollinger Capital Management, Inc., an investment management company that provides technically driven money management services to individuals, corporations, trusts and retirement plans. Bollinger Capital Management also develops and provides proprietary research for institutions and individuals. John Bollinger is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT). He is perhaps best known to the public for his many years of market analysis and commentary on television -- first on Financial News Network, where he was the Chief Market Analyst -- and subsequently on FNN’s successor, CNBC. John Bollinger is also well known to professional investors. An avid researcher, he has developed a number of widely used investment tools and analytical techniques. His Bollinger Bands have been integrated into most of the analytical software currently in use.
文章来源：MoneyShowAsia.cn