The Halftime Report Of 2008: A Global State Of Play

英文财经
The Halftime Report Of 2008: A Global State Of Play
星期三, 七月 02, 2008 09:00:30

by *Nicholas A. Vardy*

With global equities clocking their worst first-half performance in 26 years, market Cassandras are having their day in the sun. Last year only two markets in the world -- Russia and Saudi Arabia – were down halfway through the year. This year, only a handful of global markets -- Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa -- were up in local currency terms. The MSCI world equity index has fallen 11.7% since the start of the year, its worst first-half run since a decline of 13.8% during the first six months of 1982. In Europe, the FTSE Eurofirst was 21% lower for the year, its worst first-half performance since the index was launched in 1986. There really was almost nowhere to hide. The only bright spot for U.S. investors investing abroad was the relentless decline of the U.S. dollar. The dollar's continued collapse meant that 20%+ losses in Europe were a third less thanks to the Euro's rise against the dollar. And a gain of 3.1% for local investors in Brazil translated into a 14.7% gain for U.S. dollar investors thanks to the appreciation of the Brazilian Real. The Halftime Report: The U.S. Markets' Doldrums Headline writers had plenty of negative superlatives to describe U.S. market performance in the first half of 2008. With the Dow Jones Industrials down nearly 20% from its record high set in October, the past six months have been the worst first half of the year for the Dow since 1970. The broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite indexes had their worst first half since 2002, directly in the aftermath of the dot-com bust, and the 9/11 terror attacks.

''Sell in May and go away" is proving to be particularly sound advice this year. The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 10.19% in the month of June alone. That is its worst performance in June since 1930. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq weren't far behind with drops of 8.60% and 9.10%, respectively. The Halftime Report: Asia In Asia, the first half of 2008 saw last year's heroes turn into this year's zeros. China and India, last year's BRIC favorites, were the worst-performing major markets on the planet. The domestic Chinese market continued its relentless decline since hitting its peak last October. With the Shanghai exchange collapsing more than 45% since Jan. 1, investors (re)learned that the iron laws of financial speculation also apply to China. Although India never suffered from the financial mania China did, its market also dropped by about a third. Japan, picked by many top investment banks as their #1 market for 2008, continued to disappoint investors. The benchmark Nikkei 225 was down by 9.7%, matching the declines in the U.S. market. Just last week, the Nikkei benchmark slumped to a two-month low as the market "re-coupled" with negative sentiment on Wall Street. Otherwise, Asia was weak across the board. Markets as widely unrelated as Hong Kong, Australia, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Singapore all suffered double-digit percentage losses. Taiwan was the top-performing market in Asia, and even it was down 7.7%. The Halftime Report: "Old" and "New" Europe The major economies of ''Old Europe" may not have been as hobbled as the U.S. economy by subprime woes and the housing collapse. But the negative performance of its stock markets belied the relative strength of its economies. The broad-based FT Euro 100 index dropped 20.9% -- almost doubling the losses in the major U.S. indices, and comfortably pushing European markets into bear market territory. That single number, however, masks a wide variation across a range of European markets. Greece dropped more than 30%, while Italy lagged the European average in clocking a negative 22.2% return. The major Eurozone economies of Germany and France averaged a drop of around 18%. The United Kingdom's FTSE 100 proved relatively resilient by falling only 14.4%. Nevertheless, it was its worst start since a decline of 14.6% in 1994. Tiny Austria proved strongest among the Eurozone countries, dropping only 10.3%. Outside the Eurozone, oil-rich Norway fell less than 5%, and actually eked out a slight gain in U.S. dollar terms. Despite Vladimir Putin's political shenanigans, in ''New Europe" it was Russia's star that shined the brightest, with the market up almost 1% in dollar terms. The rest of ''New Europe" suffered from global investors' growing risk aversion. Turkey plummeted by a full third, and ended down 32.3%. Hungary and Poland both recorded double-digit drops of 21.7% and 24.4%, respectively.

The Halftime Report: Latin America Latin America proved to be the safest haven in the global stock world without many places to hide. Brazil's orthodox economic policies, appreciating currency and natural resource-based economy made it the favorite among emerging market investors. That explains why Brazil was the top-performing market in the world with a gain of 14.7% in dollar terms, though, as noted above, a big chunk of this return was due to the appreciation of the Brazilian currency, the Real, against the U.S. dollar. Chile actually outperformed Brazil in local currency terms, even as Mexico ended the first half of the year flat. Columbia and Argentina were the relative laggards with returns of -13.1% and -2.8%, respectively. Venezuela's market crumbled almost 40% in dollar terms as its currency collapsed thanks to Hugo Chavez's anti-business rumblings. The Halftime Report: Middle East and Africa Though off the investment maps of most U.S. investors, this varied region weathered the global turmoil surprisingly well. Although Israel dropped 11.9%, neighboring Egypt was essentially flat even as resource-rich South Africa delivered a respectable return of 3.5%. Saudi Arabia -- outperformed even Brazil and was the best-performing market in the world with a gain of 20.8%. That was all lost on U.S. investors as there is no way for them to access that market. The Halftime Report: Stormy Outlook For the Second Half of 2008 With the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index hitting its lowest levels in a generation, and most stock markets across the globe well into bear market territory, pessimism on Wall Street is as high as it has been in recent financial memory. Market head fakes like the one in March highlight how treacherous bear markets can be. You've got to be running quickly just to stay in place, even as you try to rifle-shoot top individual sectors and stock picks to generate gains. Challenging markets serve as a reminder "to never confuse brains with a bull market."
文章来源：MoneyShowAsia.cn